Taming Heuristics & Biases
FRAMING 
gains versus losses reference points and wealth effects 
Don't
automatically accept initial
framing Strive for objective, neutral framing Would a different frame hange your thinking? Challenge other people's framings 

ANCHORING AND ADJUSTMENT 
"Is population of Mexico
>35M
or <35M?" insufficient adjustments anchoring of subjective probability distributions conjunctive & disjunctive events 
Use multiple
perspectives Think first, ask questions later Consult diverse sources Don't anchor your advisers Be especially wary of anchors in negotiations 

STATUS QUO ("Business as Usual") 
Sins of omission, sins of
commission Effect of number of alternative 
Maybe status quo really
is
best Remind yourself of your objectives Look for alternatives Evaluate status quo as if it weren't Don't exaggerate switching costs Time changes things Avoid the "donkey between 2 bales of hay" trap 

SUNK COST  ("Throwing good money after bad")  Listen to people not involved in
original
decision Know thyself (Socrates) Reassign responsibility Reward good decision making, not lucky results 

CONFIRMATION 
"If A then B; .B; therefore A" jumping to conclusions "accept" null hypothesis vs. "fail to reject" 
Examine all evidence with equal
rigor Use a Devil's Advocate Know thyself Don't ask leading questions 

OVERCONFIDENCE 
illusion of control  Triple estimate:
optimistic,
likely, pessimistic Truth in labeling 

PRUDENCE (The flip side of overconfidence) 
"Conservative Estimates" 

RECALLABILITY ("AVAILABILITY ") 
biases due to the retrievability of
instances biases due to the effectiveness of a search set biases of imaginability illusory correlation concreteness 
Look for
objective statistics: Do the numbers! 

IGNORING BASE RATE ("REPRESENTATIVENESS") 
insensitivity to prior
probability
of outcomes insensitivity to sample size misperceptions of chance expectation of local representativeness of sequences gambler's fallacy "law" of small numbers regression ot the mean conjunction fallacy 
Bayes Theorem: Do the math 

OUTGUESSING RANDOMNESS 
hindsight
biases insensitivity to predictability misconceptions of regression the illusion of validity (overconfidence) 
Confidence Intervals & Hyothesis
Tests: Do the math! 

SELECTIVE PERCEPTION 
effect
of
role or expertise "editing" of memory leveling or flattening; sharpening rationalization wishful thinking optimism & pessimism are both
wishful thinking

Heterogeneous Groups: The power of diversity 