2008 Decision Sciences Syllabus
Dr. Thomas Whalen:             Send me email at 
oochitel a

Term Paper. Start Now!!

Part 1: Creating A Problem
Class Topics covered Readings<
Class 1  May 12,
Introduction to Problem Solving
The Problem Creation Phase
Is Something Going On?
Two Articles on Scoping
Movie: Apollo 13
Case: Note on How to Lie with Statistics 
Getting Acquainted with Your Data
Chapter 1 Data Analysis for Improved DecisionMaking
Class 2  May 13,
Is there a difference that makes a difference?
Individual vesus Group: Tukey Fence (HW1)
Chapter 2: Describing Data Using a Univariate Mental Model
Case:  Are These Conclusions Valid?
Class 3  May 13,
Group Differences  (HW2)
Group vs Standard: Confidence Interval   
Group versus Group 
Searching For Explanation (HW3)
Chapter 5: Statistical Inference I: Confidence Intervals
Chapter 6: Statistical Inference II: Hypothesis Testing
Confidence Intervals & Hypothesis Testing Simplified
Classes 4- 5:
May 14 Lab9:15-10:45
We will work together on the first 2 or 3 homeworks.
If you have a laptop, bring it.
There are almost enough lab computers.

Part 1: Creating A Problem, Continued 
Class 6 June 14
Insight, Prediction, Control    
Ptifalls of Blame and Credit
Chapter 7: Describing Data Using a Multivariate Mental Model
 Regression as an Executive Tool
Class 7 June 14
Is there a trend?
   HW4        HW5       HW6
Chapter 10
Bulgarian Stock Market
Quiz on Cases: Box & Label, Burred Panels
Class 8 June 15
K-T Diagnostic Worksheet Curious incident of the dog in the night
Case: Jones Box and Label: The Recall
Class 9 June 15
Diagnostic Worksheet   (con’t)
Case: "Can you analyze this case?"

Part 2: Creating Conflict and Indecision
Class 10: June 28
Heuristics & Biases
Case: The Hidden Traps in Decision Making
Blocks and Aids to Creativity                          
Quiz on Doornbos Case  
Creativity Gimmicks
Class 11: Ju ne28
Structured Dialog to boost group creativity 
Creative Conflict
Class 12: June 29
Nominal Groups:
silent writing, round robin, idea structuring
Case: Doornbos Painting
Structured Dialog
Class 13: June 29
Nominal Groups:
Debate and Approval Voting
  HW7        HW8
 Sample Essay 1

Part 3: Eliminating Options
Class 14
Aug. 9
Deterministic Problems: One State of Nature   
Juicy Problems
Adoption Placement
Class 15
Aug. 9
Devision Trees: Several States of Nature
Prior Prob., Likelihood, Posterior Prob.
New Yourk Times on Bayesian Statistics
Case: Note on Value of Info
Decision Analysis Scenarios
Class 16
Aug. 9
Monte Carlo Simulation: Many States of Nature
 Airline Overbooking
Class 17
Aug. 10
Social Choice: Many Value Judgments
  V&Y Taxonomy of Decisions
  Social Choice
 Voting Paradox
Class 18
Aug. 10
Overview of Course
Heuristics revisited
Case: When to Trust Your Gut
Leave it to the Computer?

What Have We Gained for Our Time and Mental Energy?

The material to be posted on the course website is an absolutely required "textbook" for the course.

40% of your grade is based on the following homework assignments:
Homework Assignment 1:  Looking at Job Satisfaction   Due by email Tuesday May 27

Homework Assighment 2: Group Differences Due by email Tuesday June 3
Homework Assignment 3: Trying to Explain Job Satisfaction  Due by email Tuesday June 10
Homework Assignment 4: Bulgarian Population Trend  Due by email Tuesday June 24
Homework Assignment 5: Sales and Advertising  Due by email Tuesday July 8
Homework Assignment 6: Salary and Education
Due by email Tuesday July 15
Homework Assignment 7: Education and Job Satisfaction Due by email Tuesday July 22
Homework Assignment 8: Decision Analysis Due by email Tuesday August 5, absolutely no extensions.

Quiz/Activity 1: Diagnosis Worksheet ( in class June 14-15)
Quiz/Activity 2: Design Phase ( in class June 28-29)

Term paper Essay 1 Due Thursday July 31
                      Essays 2 and 3 Due Thursday August 14

Grading: 40% 8 assignments 5% each
20% 2  in-class activities (incl. quizzes) 10% each
20% Best essay from term paper
20% Other two essays from term paper 10% each

You may request a one week extension on one and only one of the first seven assignments, but I must receive the extension request on or before the due date. Assignemnts received after the due date (or extended due date if applicable) will be graded "F".  To ensure against unforeseen delays, do the work early.