| Dr. Thomas Whalen: Send me
email at |
oochitel | a t |
sofia |
d o t |
whalen3 |
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org |
| Class | Topics covered | Readings< |
| Class 1 May 12, 3:30-5 |
Introduction to Problem Solving The Problem Creation Phase Is Something Going On? Two Articles on Scoping |
Movie: Apollo
13 Case: Note on How to Lie with Statistics Getting Acquainted with Your Data Chapter 1 Data Analysis for Improved DecisionMaking |
| Class 2 May 13, 1:15-2:45 |
Is there a difference that makes a
difference? Individual vesus Group: Tukey Fence (HW1) |
Chapter
2:
Describing Data Using a Univariate
Mental Model Case: Are These Conclusions Valid? |
| Class 3 May 13, 3-4:30 |
Group Differences (HW2) Group vs Standard: Confidence Interval Group versus Group Searching For Explanation (HW3) |
Chapter
5: Statistical
Inference I: Confidence Intervals Chapter 6: Statistical Inference II: Hypothesis Testing Confidence Intervals & Hypothesis Testing Simplified |
| Classes 4- 5: May 14 Lab9:15-10:45 11-12:30 |
We will
work together on the first 2 or 3 homeworks. If you have a laptop, bring it. There are almost enough lab computers. |
|
| Class 6 June 14 9:45-10:145 |
Insight,
Prediction, Control Ptifalls of Blame and Credit |
Chapter
7: Describing Data Using a Multivariate Mental Model Regression as an Executive Tool |
| Class 7 June 14 11:00-12:30 |
Is there a trend?
HW4 HW5 HW6 |
Chapter 10 Bulgarian Stock Market Quiz on Cases: Box & Label, Burred Panels |
| Class 8 June 15 9:15-10:45 |
K-T Diagnostic Worksheet | Curious incident of
the dog in the night Case: Jones Box and Label: The Recall |
| Class 9 June 15 11-12:30 |
Diagnostic
Worksheet
(con’t) |
Case: "Can you analyze this
case?" |
| Class 10:
June 28 1:15-2:45 |
Heuristics
& Biases Case: The Hidden Traps in Decision Making Blocks and Aids to Creativity |
Quiz on
Doornbos Case
Creativity Gimmicks |
| Class 11: Ju ne28 3-4:30 |
Groupthink Structured Dialog to boost group creativity |
Creative
Conflict |
| Class 12: June 29 9:15-10:45 |
Nominal
Groups: silent writing, round robin, idea structuring |
Case: Doornbos
Painting Structured Dialog |
| Class 13: June 29 11-12:30 |
Nominal Groups: Debate and Approval Voting |
HW7
HW8 Sample Essay 1 |
| Class 14 Aug. 9 1:00-2:30 |
Deterministic
Problems: One State of Nature |
Juicy
Problems Adoption Placement |
| Class 15 Aug. 9 2:45-4:15 |
Devision Trees: Several States
of Nature Prior Prob., Likelihood, Posterior Prob. New Yourk Times on Bayesian Statistics |
Case: Note on
Value of Info Decision Analysis Scenarios |
| Class 16 Aug. 9 4:30-6:00 |
Monte Carlo
Simulation: Many States of Nature |
Airline Overbooking |
| Class 17 Aug. 10 9:15-10:45 |
Social
Choice: Many Value Judgments V&Y Taxonomy of Decisions |
Social Choice Voting Paradox |
| Class 18 Aug. 10 11-12:30 |
Overview
of Course Heuristics revisited |
Case: When
to Trust Your Gut Leave it to the Computer? |
40% of your grade is based on the following homework assignments:
| Grading: | 40% 8 assignments 5% each 20% 2 in-class activities (incl. quizzes) 10% each 20% Best essay from term paper 20% Other two essays from term paper 10% each |